PESHAWAR: Fourteen years after they were driven out of power, the Afghan Taliban are facing their biggest challenge. With its supreme leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, now confirmed dead, the biggest question now being asked is whether the movement would survive as a cohesive force, disintegrate into various splinter groups or drift towards the more radical Islamic State.
The leak by Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security coming immediately after President Ashraf Ghani’s meeting on the state of national security took both Pakistan as well as the Afghan Taliban by surprise, who were all poised for the second round of nascent peace talks in Murree.
Those involved in the leak are now privately saying that the bombshell of a disclosure had from no less a person than the Afghan President himself, who, while quoting Pakistan, told the participants that the one-eyed cleric, who had galvanised his once vanquished fighters to take on the might of the US led coalition, was long dead and buried.
It is now confirmed that the 55-something Mullah Muhammad Omar Mujahid died of multiple organ failure following a protracted illness a year and a half ago and was quietly buried in Afghanistan – a secret very few within the Taliban hierarchy, including his trusted lieutenant deputy Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor, knew.
So closely guarded was the secret that even Omar’s eldest son, the 26-year-old Muhammad Yaqoob, was kept in the dark, till he began agitating and demanding to see his father, sources familiar with the background told Dawn.
That’s when Yaqoob, and his principal backer, Zakir, a senior Taliban military commander, sacked by Akhtar Mansoor in April 2014, began whispering about the likelihood of Omar’s possible death.
Zakir, who is opposed to peace talks and wants Yaqoob to succeed his father, is now openly challenging Akhtar Mansoor. To make matters worse, a little-known Fidae Mahaz posted a statement on Facebook on July 23, accusing Mansoor and Taliban money-bagsman, Gul Agha Ishaqzai of having killed Omar to wrestle control of the Taliban movement.
Whether Pakistan had indeed shared the highly classified information with President Ghani, whom it began to trust after more than a decade of misgivings with the Afghan leadership, chiefly Hamid Karzai, is not known, or probably may never be known.
But what is evident now is that Pakistan is certainly not pleased. The peace process, the second round of which was due to begin today at Golf Club Murree, has been put on hold, on the request of the Afghan Taliban, our Foreign Office told us.
The Pakistan-sponsored Murree Peace Initiative has become the first casualty of the leak from Kabul. But that may just be a small casualty. What may happen next on the Afghan Taliban scene is not only unpredictable and uncertain, it may as well make matters far more complicated than anyone can possibly imagine, officials worry.
In an apparent damage-control measure, the Taliban leadership shura was hurriedly convened to nominate the Taliban’s once-upon-a-time civil aviation minister and Omar’s deputy, Akhar Muhammad Mansoor, as the new ameer – also a tacit acknowledgement that the supreme leader is no more.
Mansoor’s credibility is already in question over his continued silence over the death of his supreme leader and putting out false statements on his behalf, (mis)leading the fighters to believe that not only was their leader alive and supervising their “holy war against foreign occupation forces”, but was also endorsing the Islamabad-sponsored peace talks.
The new leader is having a lot of explanations to give to his commanders and colleagues in the Rahbari shura, according to a senior Taliban figure. His argument that he kept quiet about Omar’s death in order to avoid demoralisation within the Taliban ranks and file and stop it from falling apart, is not being bought by many.
So the question being asked now is: will he be able to hold the movement together and command the same level of obedience and trust his predecessor had over the rank and file?
If he does that would be good news for Pakistan which enjoys considerable leverage and influence with Mansoor and his two newly-appointed deputies, including head of the so-called Haqqani Network, Khalifa Sirajuddin Haqqani, someone it sees it can nudge to continue to talk peace with Afghanistan.
Whether he would be able to deliver is another matter. There are indications that he already was under tremendous pressure from those opposed to the talks, including the Doha-based Political Office, which on July 8, the day the first round of peace talks ended in the cool climes of Murree, posted a statement on the official website of Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
In the statement it declared in no uncertain words that only it had “full capacity and agency powers to conduct or postpone, in light of Islamic principles and national interests, negotiations with internal and foreign parties wherever and whenever it deems suitable.”
Clearly, the Doha Political Office and Akhar Mansoor-led Taliban faction do not see eye to eye on the question of pursuing peace process through Pakistan. And this is one indication Akhtar Mansoor has no total control over the movement and its policies.
And, therefore, if he fails to keep the Taliban united there is a possibility of the nearly two-decade old movement breaking into several splinter groups with some wanting to pursue peace and others wanting to adhere to its ideology and keep on fighting till the re-establishment of Islamic Emirate, which some within the rank and file believe, is a matter of a time, till the complete withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan.
This may complicate things for Mansoor and by extension for Pakistan. Not many within the Taliban commanders and leaders are happy-takers of the peace initiative. And this opens the door for some of the disgruntled ones to cross over to the more radical Islamic State – as has already been seen in eastern Nangrahar and Kunar provinces or join the dissident Taliban groups that have already emerged on the scene.
In the weeks and perhaps months ahead, the Taliban leadership would be mulling this and other equally perplexing issues. At stake is the future of the Afghan Taliban movement and perhaps the future of a negotiated political settlement in Afghanistan.
In the weeks and perhaps months ahead, the Taliban leadership would be mulling over this and other equally perplexing issues. At stake is the future of the Afghan Taliban movement and perhaps the future of a negotiated political settlement in Afghanistan.
